The effect of climate change on avian offspring production: A global meta-analysis.

Climate change affects timing of reproduction in many bird species, but few studies have investigated its influence on annual reproductive output. Here, we assess changes in the annual production of young by female breeders in 201 populations of 104 bird species (N = 745,962 clutches) covering all continents between 1970 and 2019. Overall, average offspring production has declined in recent decades, but considerable differences were found among species and populations. A total of 56.7% of populations showed a declining trend in offspring production (significant in 17.4%), whereas 43.3% exhibited an increase (significant in 10.4%). The results show that climatic changes affect offspring production through compounded effects on ecological and life history traits of species. Migratory and larger-bodied species experienced reduced offspring production with increasing temperatures during the chick-rearing period, whereas smaller-bodied, sedentary species tended to produce more offspring. Likewise, multi-brooded species showed increased breeding success with increasing temperatures, whereas rising temperatures were unrelated to reproductive success in single-brooded species. Our study suggests that rapid declines in size of bird populations reported by many studies from different parts of the world are driven only to a small degree by changes in the production of young.

Fitness consequences of longer breeding seasons of a migratory passerine under changing climatic conditions.

Numerous studies have shown that climate change affects the timing of migration and bird laying dates, but the resulting changes in the duration of breeding seasons and their fitness consequences remain largely unknown. We compared breeding parameters of 343 individually marked female Eurasian reed warblers, a multi-brooded migratory passerine, studied in the same area in 1980-1983 and 2005-2012. The latter period was warmer, with mean temperatures during the breeding season higher by 1.5°C on average. As, in recent years, birds arrive earlier from wintering areas and the breeding season of the population is longer, we hypothesized it should result in the increased re-nesting opportunities of individual females. We found that breeding periods of individual females (from building of the first nest till the end of caring for last fledglings/last nest failure) in the current century have extended by 2 weeks compared to the 1980s. In the 2000s, females produced 75% more fledglings annually than females in the 1980s (2.8 vs. 1.6, respectively). The proportion of females raising second broods increased from 2.7% to 23.6% between the first and the second study period while the share of females that did not produce any young annually decreased from 48.1% to 15.5%. The higher offspring production in recent years was related to more successfully fledged broods and an earlier start of breeding, which secured more time to re-nest. Higher female parental effort in recent years was not manifested in the reduction of the female apparent survival: it was almost identical in the two study periods (0.30 vs. 0.31). We conclude that prolonged reproductive seasons might be beneficial for some species. Identifying causes and consequences of changes in the duration of breeding seasons may be essential to predict demography of populations under changing climatic conditions.

Postnatal ossification sequences in Acrocephalus scirpaceus and Chroicocephalus ridibundus (Aves: Neognathae): The precocial-altricial spectrum and evolution of compound bones in birds.

Although the development of the avian skeleton has attracted considerable attention, most of the studies have been concentrated on the embryonic period, while studies on the postnatal period are rare. We studied the postnatal development of the skeleton in two phylogenetically distant birds, an altricial passerine Acrocephalus scirpaceus and a semiprecocial charadriiform Chroicocephalus ridibundus. The neonates of the former, despite being altricial, have well-ossified skeleton-the degree of development approaches that of the semiprecocial gull. However, after hatching the limb bones (particularly those of the hind limb) ossify earlier in the gull which is probably related to faster acquisition of locomotor abilities. We have observed that, in contrast to previous reports from neognathous birds, in the ankle of the gull, the ascending process fuses with the astragalus rather than with the calcaneum. This type of development is present in palaeognaths and nonavian dinosaurs but has not yet been reported in neognaths. This indicates a greater diversity within Neognathae and suggests a more complex scenario for the evolution of the avian ankle. However, data from a greater number of species are needed to establish the developmental sequence ancestral for neognathous birds. Furthermore, the sequence of bone fusions in the wrist of Acrocephalus is similar to the fossil-documented evolutionary sequence observed in the phylogeny of early birds, with the semilunate carpal and major metacarpal fusing first, followed by the alular metacarpal fusing with the major metacarpal and then the major and minor metacarpal fusing proximally. These data underscore the importance of developmental studies for reconstructing the evolutionary history.

The effect of climate change on laying dates, clutch size and productivity of Eurasian Coots Fulica atra.

Climate change is affecting many living organisms; however, the responses of many of them remain unknown. In this paper, we present the results regarding the response of a bird species from the rallid family to the increased temperatures during the breeding season. We analysed the breeding data of Eurasian Coots nesting during 30 seasons between 1972 and 2019. During the study period, mean temperatures in April, the month when Coots start nesting, increased by 3.5 °C, and in months corresponding with the species breeding season by 2.6 °C. Breeding Coots advanced their earliest and median laying dates across the study period; however, the duration of their breeding season remained unchanged. We did not detect any significant temporal changes in clutch size, but clutches have become much more variable in size throughout the study period. Nest failures and production of offspring per nest did not change over the study period; however, the production of young per successful nest significantly declined. It is likely that this decline is the effect of mismatch between the period of food abundance (dipterans collected from water), and hatchling emergence, which is advanced due to change in climate. Future studies investigating the occurrence of dipteran resources at water bodies are needed to test this hypothesis.

Seasonal dynamics of haemosporidian (Apicomplexa, Haemosporida) parasites in house sparrows Passer domesticus at four European sites: comparison between lineages and the importance of screening methods.

Infectious diseases often vary seasonally in a predictable manner, and seasonality may be responsible for geographical differences in prevalence. In temperate regions, vector-borne parasites such as malaria are expected to evolve lower virulence and a time-varying strategy to invest more in transmission when vectors are available. A previous model of seasonal variation of avian malaria described a double peak in prevalence of Plasmodium parasites in multiple hosts resulting from spring relapses and transmission to susceptible individuals in summer. However, this model was rejected by a study describing different patterns of seasonal variation of two Plasmodium spp. at the same site, with the double peak only apparent when these species were combined. Here, we assessed the seasonal variation in prevalence of haemosporidian parasites (Plasmodium, Haemoproteus and Leucocytozoon) in house sparrows (Passer domesticus) sampled across 1 year at four temperate European sites spanning a latitudinal range of 17°. We showed that parasite prevalence and diversity decreased with increasing latitude, but the parasite communities differed between sites, with only one Plasmodium lineage (P_SGS1) occurring at all sites. Moreover, the nested PCR method commonly used to detect and identify haemosporidian parasites strongly underestimated co-infections of Haemoproteus and Plasmodium, significantly biasing the pattern of seasonal variation, so additional molecular methods were used. Finally, we showed that: (i) seasonal variation in prevalence of haemosporidian parasites varied between study sites and parasite lineages/species/genera, describing further cases where the double peak model is not met; (ii) the seasonal dynamics of single lineages (P_SGS1) varied between sites; and (iii) unexpectedly, seasonality was greatest at the southernmost site, a pattern that was mostly driven by lineage H_PADOM05. Limitations of the genotyping methods and consequences of pooling (parasite lineages, sites and years) in studies of haemosporidian parasites are discussed and recommendations proposed, since these actions may obscure the patterns of prevalence and limit ecological inferences.

The effect of climate change on the duration of avian breeding seasons: a meta-analysis.

Many bird species are advancing the timing of their egg-laying in response to a warming climate. Little is known, however, of whether this advancement affects the respective length of the breeding seasons. A meta-analysis of 65 long-term studies of 54 species from the Northern Hemisphere has revealed that within the last 45 years an average population has lengthened the season by 1.4 days per decade, which was independent from changes in mean laying dates. Multi-brooded birds have prolonged their seasons by 4 days per decade, while single-brooded have shortened by 2 days. Changes in season lengths covaried with local climate changes: warming was correlated with prolonged seasons in multi-brooded species, but not in single-brooders. This might be a result of higher ecological flexibility of multi-brooded birds, whereas single brooders may have problems with synchronizing their reproduction with the peak of food resources. Sedentary species and short-distance migrants prolonged their breeding seasons more than long-distance migrants, which probably cannot track conditions at their breeding grounds. We conclude that as long as climate warming continues without major changes in ecological conditions, multi-brooded or sedentary species will probably increase their reproductive output, while the opposite effect may occur in single-brooded or migratory birds.

Survival during the Breeding Season: Nest Stage, Parental Sex, and Season Advancement Affect Reed Warbler Survival.

Avian annual survival has received much attention, yet little is known about seasonal patterns in survival, especially of migratory passerines. In order to evaluate survival rates and timing of mortality within the breeding season of adult reed warblers (Acrocephalus scirpaceus), mark-recapture data were collected in southwest Poland, between 2006 and 2012. A total of 612 individuals (304 females and 308 males) were monitored throughout the entire breeding season, and their capture-recapture histories were used to model survival rates. Males showed higher survival during the breeding season (0.985, 95% CI: 0.941-0.996) than females (0.869, 95% CI: 0.727-0.937). Survival rates of females declined with the progression of the breeding season (from May to August), while males showed constant survival during this period. We also found a clear pattern within the female (but not male) nesting cycle: survival was significantly lower during the laying, incubation, and nestling periods (0.934, 95% CI: 0.898-0.958), when birds spent much time on the nest, compared to the nest building and fledgling periods (1.000, 95% CI: 1.00-1.000), when we did not record any female mortality. These data (coupled with some direct evidence, like bird corpses or blood remains found next to/on the nest) may suggest that the main cause of adult mortality was on-nest predation. The calculated survival rates for both sexes during the breeding season were high compared to annual rates reported for this species, suggesting that a majority of mortality occurs at other times of the year, during migration or wintering. These results have implications for understanding survival variation within the reproductive period as well as general trends of avian mortality.

Embryonic eggshell thickness erosion: A literature survey re-assessing embryo-induced eggshell thinning in birds.

Although eggshell thinning has been described mainly in the context of environmental pollution, it can also be the effect of reproductive changes induced by a developing embryo. On the basis of a literature survey of 25 bird species (26 published papers) we reviewed data on embryo-induced eggshell thinning (EET) in three groups of birds: precocials, semi-precocials and altricials. The average EET at the equator of the eggs was 6.4% (median = 4.7%). Our review did not confirm a general prediction of elevated EET at the egg equator in precocial species: altricial birds exhibited the highest EET (average = 12.0%), followed by precocials (7.6%) and semi-precocials (4.2%). We make certain critical recommendations based on the results of this study. Studies aiming to assess variation in eggshell thickness should examine intrinsic factors affecting shell properties of avian eggs, like thickness, which are the result of anatomical or reproductive changes.

Coping with shifting nest predation refuges by European reed Warblers Acrocephalus scirpaceus.

Predation, the most important source of nest mortality in altricial birds, has been a subject of numerous studies during past decades. However, the temporal dynamics between changing predation pressures and parental responses remain poorly understood. We analysed characteristics of 524 nests of European reed warblers monitored during six consecutive breeding seasons in the same area, and found some support for the shifting nest predation refuge hypothesis. Nest site characteristics were correlated with nest fate, but a nest with the same nest-site attributes could be relatively safe in one season and vulnerable to predation in another. Thus nest predation refuges were ephemeral and there was no between-season consistency in nest predation patterns. Reed warblers that lost their first nests in a given season did not disperse farther for the subsequent reproductive attempt, compared to successful individuals, but they introduced more changes to their second nest sites. In subsequent nests, predation risk remained constant for birds that changed nest-site characteristics, but increased for those that did not. At the between-season temporal scale, individual birds did not perform better with age in terms of reducing nest predation risk. We conclude that the experience acquired in previous years may not be useful, given that nest predation refuges are not stable.